Fewer Children, Bigger Questions: The Global Demographic Challenge

The share of children aged 0 to 14 in the overall population varies significantly by region. In Central African countries, children make up nearly half the population. By contrast, in high-income countries, their share barely exceeds one-fifth.

In the mid-20th century, global birth rates were significantly higher: on average, a woman had 4.7 children. By 2023, however, this figure had dropped to 2.25, according to the World Bank. By 2100, it is projected to decline further to 1.7 children per woman, according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. As a result, the global population growth rate has also slowed considerably, from a peak of 2.3% per year in 1963 to less than 1% today.

Three main factors drive the decline in the global birth rate:

1. The growing role of women in society — greater access to education and increased participation in the workforce often lead to delayed childbirth and smaller families.
2. A significant decline in child mortality rates — in the past, families had more children to offset the risk of losing them.
3. The rising cost of raising children, combined with the declining economic value of child labor, makes large families less financially viable.

Although the average number of children born per woman (fertility rate) still hovers around 4.0 in the least developed countries, in many other nations, it is approaching—or has already fallen below—the critical threshold of 2.1, the level needed for a population to replace itself naturally. When birth rates drop below this point, and in the absence of immigration, population numbers begin to decline over time.

Europe today is a vivid example of how rapid social change can impact demographic trends. In 2023, only 3.67 million children were born in the EU — nearly half the number born in the mid-20th century. The average fertility rate in the EU is just 1.38 children per woman, well below the replacement threshold. The gap between countries is also substantial: Malta had the lowest rate at 1.06, while Bulgaria recorded the highest at 1.81 children per woman.

At the same time, the average age of mothers at the birth of their first child continues to rise. Across the EU, it has reached 29.8 years. Bulgaria has the earliest average age of motherhood (26.9 years), while Italy has the latest (31.8 years).

This is more than just statistics — it is a strategic warning. Low birth rates are already having a noticeable impact on demographic structures. In Central European and Baltic countries, populations are gradually shrinking. In Japan—home to one of the highest average ages in the world — one-third of the population is over 65.

The decline in the proportion of children and the rise in the share of older adults point to a shrinking working-age population, triggering a chain of economic consequences: slower GDP growth, labor shortages, and growing pressure on pension systems. Fewer children today means fewer workers tomorrow, resulting in lower tax revenues just as spending on healthcare and pension programs is set to surge.

The financial burden on younger generations is steadily increasing. As the share of retirees grows, the strain on those who are still working will intensify. Governments will be forced to rethink budgetary models, employment policies, and even their approach to immigration.

Today we should ask a deeper question: how many children will remain in the world a generation from now? Declining fertility is not just a matter of personal choice or shifting values — it is a profound, systemic transformation on a global scale. The world is rapidly moving into an era where children are becoming an increasingly scarce resource—one that will shape the economic future of entire nations.