How many troops does Russia need to occupy Ukraine?

The current Russian forces could be enough to occupy one or two oblasts

Overpasses For America

Author:

 Prof. Motyl argues that

  • In order to occupy Donetsk and Luhansk provinces alone, Russian would have to deploy somewhere between 26,702 and 133,514 troops.
  • A “land bridge” from Crimea to Transnistria would mean occupying Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odessa provinces—which would entail somewhere between 46,497 and 92,994 soldiers.
  • Occupying all seven southeastern provinces would require between 118,536 (26,702 for Donetsk and Luhansk and 91,834 for the others) and 317,182 (133,514 for Donetsk and Luhansk and 183,668 for the others).
  • If Russia decides to conquer all of Ukraine, it would need an additional 548,587 troops—for a grand total of 667,123 to 865,769 troops.
  • Kyiv city and Kyiv Province alone would require 90,676 occupying soldiers.
  • All of Ukraine = more than 500,000 soldiers

These calculations suggest that Russian troops concentrated next to the Ukrainian border may be not enough to occupy many oblasts in Ukraine. However, the current Russian forces could be enough to occupy one or two oblasts.


Disclaimer

The author doesn`t work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have no relevant affiliations