FAKE: 64% of Ukrainians don’t believe in the return of Ukraine’s territories to 1991 borders — AFP survey

Kremlin-affiliated Telegram channels are spreading a “report from Agence France-Presse (AFP)” showing results from a survey among Ukrainians conducted by the European statistical organization Eurostat. According to this supposed Eurostat survey, 64% of Ukrainians allegedly do not believe in the return of Ukraine’s territories to the borders of 1991. Additionally, 71% and 69% of Ukrainians supposedly “do not believe” in Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU respectively within the next 5 years. Furthermore, 77% of respondents feel “disappointed” with the level of support from the EU and NATO.

This is fake. AFP and Eurostat did not publish such statistics; the Russians deliberately created a fake report with recognizable logos. According to real studies, a significant portion of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine will reclaim its territories within the 1991 borders as a result of the war.

In reality, AFP has not published any such survey on social media or its website. Eurostat’s pages also lack the “survey” results cited by the Russians. Moreover, Eurostat publishes statistics on the impact of the war on Ukraine and EU countries. We did not find any survey about Ukrainians’ belief in the return to 1991 borders, or accession to the EU or NATO in any of their materials.

To what extent do Ukrainians believe in the restoration of territories to the 1991 borders?

In February 2024, the Sociological Group “Rating” conducted a nationwide survey commissioned by the Center for Analysis and Sociological Research of the International Republican Institute. The survey included 2,000 Ukrainians. When asked, “In your opinion, what will Ukraine’s borders be at the end of the war?” 45% of respondents answered that Ukraine will retain all the territories it had in 1991, while 16% said Ukraine will only reclaim territories occupied after February 24, 2022.

In a similar survey conducted by the organization in March 2024, 73% of Ukrainians believed that Ukraine would reclaim all occupied territories over time. Only 5% believed that Russia was winning the war.

To what extent do Ukrainians believe in Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO?

According to a study by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (2,500 interviews) conducted in May 2024, 41% of respondents thought that Ukraine’s accession to the EU and NATO is possible within the next 2-5 years.

Views on the war from early May 2024 were also collected by the “Rating” organization and Datapraxis. They surveyed about 1,500 Ukrainians. Despite delays in Western arms supplies, most respondents positively assessed the EU’s role in the war (54% “positive” and another 18% “very positive”). Similarly, respondents viewed the role of the U.S. positively (50% “positive” and another 28% “very positive”). Respondents were not asked about specific timeframes for Ukraine’s accession to NATO or the EU. However, 64% of Ukrainians still considered EU membership as important as NATO membership.

This is not the first time that Russians have spread fake data under the guise of AFP. They do this deliberately to lend more legitimacy to their claims and increase reader trust. Russia has launched a whole series of fake reports using the logos of well-known media outlets.