Russia tries to regain its geopolitical importance by sowing chaos and undermining institutions in other countries. Keeping a blind eye to it is a self-defeating strategy.
“In five years Russian roads will be like German ones”, – says Putin. “What do you plan to do to Germany?” – asks his aide. This Russian joke describes the modus operandi of the Kremlin. It has always strived to be a “superpower”, i.e. to be able to dictate its will to other nations. However, it tried to achieve superiority not by inventing new technologies (a major part of Russian inventions are stolen), contributing to culture (a lot so-called “Russian culture” is also stolen or appropriated), or improving lives of its own people (e.g. a fifth of Russian households don’t have indoor plumbing) but by destroying other countries as well as international institutions. Russia uses three instruments for this.
The first instrument is to sow chaos with lies and disinformation campaigns. This instrument is the most complex and perhaps the most dangerous because many people do not immediately recognize its danger. Russia manipulates public opinion and interferes in the political process directly by disinformation and indirectly through financing of anti-establishment political parties and politicians. These parties can be left (like communists since the early 20th century), right (like Alternative for Germany or Marine Le Pen) or simply populists like Trump or Orban. The main “qualification” of these parties is that they do not recognize the value of institutions and try to destroy them. The January 6, 2020 attack on the Capitol is a most vivid manifestation of “chaotization” in U.S. politics but available accounts of Trump’s presidency (e.g. “Fire and Fury” by Bob Woodward) document the banality of chaotic thinking and voluntarist decisions as well as the thin layer of principled individuals who prevented the country from sliding into bedlam and lawlessness.
If the first instrument does not weaken opponents with division and polarization, Russia’s second instrument to wreak havoc is terrorism. As a famous Russian dissident said, “If two cruise missiles were to be launched at the Lubyanka [the building where the KGB/FSB resides], the level of terrorism worldwide would drop by approximately 80 percent.” Indeed, the USSR started financing and training many terrorist groups already in the 1960s-1970s. Now Russia openly supports Hamas and Hezbollah not only politically but also with weapons. Together with Iran, it supplies weapons and satellite data to the Houthis to disrupt international trade. One may remember that after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 Russia supported the US fight against terror. But this was only because at that time it started the second bloodbath in Chechnya and was depicting Chechens fighting for their independence as “terrorists” to ensure that the world doesn’t help them.
The final tool is war. This is business as usual for the Kremlin. Indeed, today’s Russia gained its large territory by perpetual conquests and genocides of many peoples, including Ukrainians. Many have forgotten the role of the Soviet Union (another form of Russian Empire) in WWII, conveniently blaming everything on Hitler. However, it was Stalin who helped Hitler come to power: in 1933, he banned [Soviet-supported] German communists to form a coalition government with Social Democrats which allowed Hitler to become the Chancellor. Later, the USSR heavily armed and supplied Germany, and finally signed the “Molotov-Ribbentrop pact” that started WWII.
The USSR supported North Korean forces in the Korean war, communist Vietnam in the Vietnam war, and almost started a nuclear war by placing nuclear missiles on Cuba. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979-1989 cost lives of about 1 million Afghanis. However, that war weakened the USSR enough to allow some of its peoples escape the empire (unfortunately, George Bush’s “Chichen Kyiv” speech and other policies at the time suggest that the West supported the prison of peoples rather than the prisoners).
Modern Russian wars range from Moldova and Georgia in the early 1990s to the current war on Ukraine. Its intervention in Syria destroyed the country and caused a migration crisis in Europe. The military alliance of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea either already wages wars (in Ukraine and in the Middle East) or plans to wage wars in the near future (Taiwan looks like the next target). As General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi recently stated in his Chatham House speech, these countries are united not against Ukraine. They are united against the collective West. To paraphrase Leon Trotsky, the West may be not interested in the war with Russia and her allies, but Russia is interested in having a war with the West.
In summary, on November 5th Americans will make many important choices but perhaps the most important one is between institutions and chaos. Certainly, if Putin engineers “his” president in the US he will feel greater than Stalin who installed “his” German chancellor in 1933. But the consequences for the US and the world will be much worse.
Photo: depositphotos.com/ua
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The authors do not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have no relevant affiliations
