VoxUkraine continues to monitor the labor market during and after quarantine. In the first article we looked at data up to mid-April and saw a significant reduction in both the number of vacancies and the number of resumes within two weeks after the start of quarantine. In this article, we consider the data for 19th of May inclusive. Did the labor market recover a week after the quarantine was eased?
As part of the study, we processed weekly data on new vacancies and resumes posted on the portal Work.ua in the period of two weeks before the quarantine and ten weeks after its start.. From April 1, we also started collecting more detailed daily data. Let us recall, that quarantine began on March 12 (week 11 of 2020), and transport restrictions were introduced on March 18. On 22nd of April , the quarantine was extended until May 11, and some restrictions were lifted on 12th of May.
Figure 1. Number of vacancies and resumes on the site work.ua.
Source: WorkUA
During the first six weeks of quarantine, there was a gradual decline in both the number of vacancies and the number of resumes. In the following weeks (ie after April 21), both indicators began to grow (Fig. 1), but the number of resumes grew much faster.
According to the State Employment Service, in April 2020, 149,000 people received the status of unemployed – three times more than in April last year.
The number of resumes per vacancy increased from 2 before the start of quarantine to 3.5 in the week of May 6-12 and continued to increase to 3.6 in the first week of its mitigation. The acceleration in the number of resumes after the quarantine was eased may be due to the fact that those who lost their jobs due to quarantine are no longer ready to stay on forced “leave” at their own expense and return to actively seeking a source of income. You can expect a further increase in the number of resumes after the gradual removal of transport restrictions.
As Table 1 shows, during the week after the quarantine was lifted (13-19 / 05), the number of resumes per vacancy in legal (lawyer) sector, hotel and restaurant business and tourism, personnel management and HR, marketing, advertising and PR increased the most. In the areas of real estate, logistics and insurance, the number of resumes per vacancy decreased slightly.
Fig. 2 shows that the increase in vacancies between the weeks of 6-12 and 13-19 of May occurred in all areas, but most – in real estate (however, in absolute numbers it is small – from 123 to 164), logistics, culture and retail. The lowest growth was in agriculture and law.
Figure 2. Change in the number of resumes and vacancies between the week of 6-12 and 13-19 May,%
Source: work.ua data, own calculations
Note: Data table for graph in addendum
Table 1. Change in the number of resumes per 1 vacancy between weeks by areas of employment
| Category | 04-10/03 | 6-12/05 | 13-19/05 | Change % (13-19/05 до 04-10/03) | Change, % (13-19/05 до 6-12/05) |
| Legal | 3,3 | 7,4 | 8,6 | 162% | 18% |
| HR and personnel management | 2,8 | 6,3 | 7,0 | 152% | 11% |
| Hotels, restaurants, tourism | 1,4 | 4,5 | 5,0 | 254% | 11% |
| Marketing, advertisement, PR | 1,6 | 3,3 | 3,6 | 126% | 10% |
| Secretarial, clerical, administrative assistants | 3,0 | 6,3 | 6,9 | 129% | 8% |
| Retail | 1,4 | 2,8 | 3,1 | 118% | 8% |
| Design, creativity | 3,3 | 5,9 | 6,4 | 96% | 8% |
| Top- management, upper management | 7,1 | 11,7 | 12,6 | 78% | 8% |
| IT, computers, internet | 1,4 | 2,6 | 2,8 | 96% | 7% |
| Telecommunications | 1,2 | 2,2 | 2,3 | 85% | 6% |
| Medicine, pharmaceuticals | 1,6 | 2,9 | 3,0 | 95% | 5% |
| Sales, procurements | 1,2 | 2,4 | 2,5 | 104% | 4% |
| Agriculture, agribusiness | 1,4 | 1,7 | 1,8 | 22% | 4% |
| Service sector | 1,4 | 3,4 | 3,5 | 160% | 4% |
| Administration, middle management | 3,6 | 6,6 | 6,8 | 89% | 3% |
| Mass media, publishing, printing | 4,1 | 8,8 | 9,1 | 123% | 3% |
| Beauty, fitness, sport | 1,8 | 2,8 | 2,9 | 58% | 2% |
| Accounting, auditing | 1,7 | 3,7 | 3,8 | 125% | 2% |
| Security, guarding | 3,2 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 27% | 2% |
| Finance, banking | 1,2 | 2,9 | 2,9 | 155% | 1% |
| Transport, auto industry | 2,2 | 3,9 | 3,9 | 73% | 0% |
| Skilled trades, manufacturing | 1,5 | 2,4 | 2,4 | 61% | 0% |
| Education, science | 3,4 | 7,8 | 7,6 | 126% | -2% |
| Culture, music, show business, | 5,2 | 9,4 | 9,2 | 77% | -2% |
| Construction, architecture | 2,0 | 3,1 | 3,1 | 54% | -3% |
| Insurance | 0,8 | 1,5 | 1,4 | 81% | -4% |
| Logistics, warehouses, international commerce | 1,6 | 3,3 | 3,1 | 91% | -5% |
| Real estate | 0,9 | 1,4 | 1,3 | 50% | -11% |
Source: work.ua data, own calculations.
Let’s compare weekly data for the weeks of 6-12 and 13-19 of May.
Vacancies
Among the leading companies in the number of vacancies for the week of May 13-19 – retail (Silpo, Fora, Retail Group, Eva, Novus), logistics companies (Ukrposhta and Nova Poshta). Over the last week, Ukrposhta has doubled the number of vacancies.
By professions for the week of May 13-19th in the vacancies were most common positions of sales managers and executives. Compared to the previous week, the number of vacancies for loaders, sales consultants and drivers increased the most. This may be due to the opening of part of the quarantined retail trade.
Small businesses, which had previously been actively reducing the number of vacancies, increased the number of vacancies at a higher rate than large ones during the week of May 13-19.
40% of vacancies in the week of May 13-19 required work experience of one year, 27% – of two years, 6% – of 5 years. The number of vacancies with the requirements of experience up to 1 year and experience from 2 to 5 years increased the most during this week.
During the week of 13-19, the number of vacancies for applicants with secondary and secondary special education increased the most. Only 34% of vacancies required higher education (with 56% of applicants having higher education).
After the fall during the quarantine, the number of vacancies to which students and people with disabilities are invited gradually increased.
The number of vacancies with the possibility of remote work was 6% and decreased slightly during the week of May 13-19.
Conclusion
Among the most popular professions in the resume – head manager, administrator, sales consultant, sales manager, driver. During the week of May 13-19, the number of resumes of sales consultants, waiters and cashiers increased the most, probably in anticipation of the increase in vacancies due to the easing of quarantine. The largest number of resumes per vacancy was for lawyers, administrators, waiters and bartenders / baristas, the smallest – for loaders (less than one), cleaners, and pharmacists.
The number of resumes from younger job seekers (14-19 years old and 20-29 years old) grew the fastest.
According to our estimates (automatic coding by last name and first name), 40-45% of resumes are from women, and this share increased during May. In the week of May 13-19, more than 90% of the resumes of cleaners, cashiers and accountants were from women, while more than 90% of the resumes of loaders, drivers, programmers and security guards were from men. 79% of resumes for management positions are also from men.
26% of job seekers are considering distance work (while only 6% of vacancies offer it). In absolute terms, their number increased significantly during the 7 weeks of observations (from 15.7 thousand in early April to 20.4 thousand in the week of 13-19 May).
Situation forecast and state policy
Further lifting of quarantine will stimulate the growth of both the number of resumes and the number of vacancies. But the number of resumes will grow faster, increasing the labor surplus in the labor market.
In response to rising unemployment, the government announced the creation of 500,000 jobs. Quantitatively, this should be enough to employ the officially registered unemployed. But the question is how realistic such plans are and whether former waiters or office workers will want to work on lower-payd positions on roads constructions.
The government also stimulates the creation of jobs for small and medium-sized businesses through a 5-7-9% money lending program. But in the current conditions, the business is not ready to expand. If loans are needed, they are more likely to replenish working capital.
Not only the government but also local authorities should take care of job creation and access to them. Quarantine showed shortcomings in urban development. Many suburbs of megacities in recent years have become suburbs without employment opportunities at the place of residence. Due to transport restrictions, people living there have lost the opportunity to get to work in the city and earn a living.
One of the co-authors of the article lives in Irpen. In recent years, the city’s population has doubled, from a resort town it has become a residential area of Kiev. Due to transport restrictions for more than two months, a significant number of residents are unable to get to work.
A similar problem is in the cities themselves, where most jobs are outside pedestrian accessibility. With the ill-considered continuation of urban development, a significant part of their residents may eventually find themselves in a situation similar to quarantine due to transport collapse. Quarantine should be an impetus for the development of not only public transport but also cycling infrastructure – so that people can get to work with minimal health risks.
We will continue to follow market trends and plan the next issue in a few weeks.
Addition.
Table 1. Change in the number of resumes and vacancies between the week of 19-13 and 6-12 May,%
| Sector of activity | Change in number of vacancies | Change in number of resumes
|
| Agriculture, agribusiness | 1% | 5% |
| Legal | 4% | 22% |
| Insurance | 6% | 1% |
| Marketing, advertisement,PR | 6% | 16% |
| IT, computers, internet | 6% | 14% |
| Design creativity, | 8% | 16% |
| Mass media, publishing, printing, видавництво, поліграфія | 8% | 11% |
| Top and upper management | 8% | 17% |
| Medicine, pharmaceuticals | 11% | 16% |
| Security, guarding | 12% | 14% |
| HR,personnel management | 13% | 25% |
| Telecommunications | 13% | 19% |
| Hotels, restaurants, tourism | 13% | 26% |
| Sales and procurements | 14% | 19% |
| Secretarial, clerical and administrative assistants, | 15% | 24% |
| Transport, auto industry | 16% | 16% |
| Administration and middle management, | 16% | 20% |
| Skilled trades and manufacturing | 17% | 17% |
| Finance, banking | 18% | 19% |
| Accounting, auditing | 18% | 21% |
| Education, science | 18% | 17% |
| Constructing, architecture | 19% | 16% |
| Beauty, fitness, sport | 19% | 22% |
| Service sector | 20% | 24% |
| Retail | 22% | 32% |
| Culture, music, show business | 23% | 21% |
| Logistics, warehouses, international commerce | 24% | 18% |
| Real estate | 33% | 19% |
Attention
The authors do not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have no relevant affiliations
