FALSE: The Institute for the Study of War predicts a rapid advance of Russians in the Kharkiv region and an assault on the regional center

Information is being spread online that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicts a rapid advance of the Russian army in the Kharkiv direction. ISW supposedly believes that after gaining control over the village of Liptsi, the Russian army will pull up its reserves and, with the support of artillery and aviation, begin a full-scale assault on Kharkiv.

This is false. The report does not provide a forecast regarding the pace of enemy advancement. ISW does not believe that Russians will attempt to storm Kharkiv.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is an American analytical center that has been analyzing combat operations in Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion and publishes daily reports assessing the situation on the front lines. On the ISW website, we found the summary and map that were published by the creators of the fake news.

The report provides an assessment of the Russian offensive campaign as of May 10, 2024, and ISW’s analysis of its objectives. However, the analytical center does not hypothesize about how quickly the Russian army will advance in the Kharkiv direction.

ISW experts indeed suggest that the Russian army has reserves that it is ready to deploy later in this direction. In their initial attacks, Russia used a relatively limited number of personnel and equipment. However, ISW does not believe that the enemy intends to conduct a large-scale operation to capture or encircle Kharkiv. ISW analysts suggest that the goal of this campaign is to push Ukrainian forces away from the border with Belgorod Oblast and advance towards Kharkiv to within the range of tube artillery, i.e., closer than 25 km from the city. The institute assesses that it will likely be difficult for Russia to capture Kharkiv if they decide to attempt it.

Additionally, ISW states that the Russians are trying to divert the maximum number of Ukrainian Defense Forces from other sections of the front to the Kharkiv direction to intensify their efforts in Donbas: there, they are attempting to break through northwest of Avdiivka and towards Chasiv Yar.