Will AI Take Over Your Job?

Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly integrating into various aspects of life, and Ukraine is actively engaging in this process. At the end of 2024, the government approved the Ukrainian Global Innovation Strategy (WINWIN), which sets out measures to stimulate innovation, with AI playing a key role in 14 industries until 2030. The adoption of WINWIN is expected to make AI a major driver of Ukraine’s economy by streamlining routine processes, increasing production efficiency, and creating new jobs.

Colorful Simple Modern Corporate Professional Project Work Scheme Concept Mind Map Graph , копия автор: Mariia Balytska

On February 4, 2025, the WINWIN AI Center of Excellence was launched—a hub for AI development and integration into the public sector and other key industries. This includes integrating AI into Diia, the educational app Mriia, and developing analytical tools for the government. One of Ukraine’s strategic goals is to rank among the world’s top three leaders in AI development and application by 2030. To achieve this, the government plans to introduce tax incentives and financial support for AI startups, accelerating their expansion into global markets. 

The rapid adoption of AI is expected to drive economic recovery. According to Goldman Sachs, AI development could increase global GDP by 7%—or $7 trillion—over the next decade. Meanwhile, McKinsey Global Institute projects an even greater impact, estimating between $17 trillion and $25 trillion over the same period! But is the outlook really that promising? And what could be the consequences of AI’s impact on the job market?

 AI: An economic revolution or an overhyped trend?

In his research, Daron Acemoglu, the 2024 Nobel laureate in economics, warns against excessive optimism about AI’s impact on the global economy. He explains that new technologies do not transform the economy instantly but are gradually adopted across specific sectors.

AI is indeed taking over routine tasks such as text processing, data analysis, and customer support in chat systems. However, it cannot automate all processes. For example, only 20% of job tasks in the U.S. are expected to be affected by AI, and in some cases, the costs of AI implementation may outweigh its benefits. According to Acemoglu’s estimates, the anticipated overall productivity growth from AI over the next decade is expected to be just 0.66%.

The expected impact of AI on GDP could be slightly higher when factoring in investments in its development. According to Acemoglu’s calculations, over 10 years, U.S. GDP growth driven by AI could range from 0.93% to 1.16% with moderate investments or 1.4% to 1.56% if investment in artificial intelligence significantly increases. 

How will AI affect people’s incomes?

Not all employed people will benefit from AI implementation. While AI can help less experienced employees work more efficiently, it does not guarantee higher wages. For instance, for individuals with only a partial secondary education, Acemoglu predicts just a 1.3% salary increase over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, the income gap between those with a high school education and those with postgraduate or doctoral degrees is expected to widen. 

For most educational groups, AI could replace 4-6% of tasks (see Figure 2). Middle-income workers will be most affected by AI. Highly paid professionals (blue and yellow bubbles on the diagram) are not entirely immune either. Although their jobs often require decision-making based on specific circumstances, parts of their work can still be automated. On the other hand, low-wage jobs that require physical labor are much harder to fully automate, making it unlikely that AI will replace these workers (green bubbles). 

AI enables companies to reduce labor costs, boosting profits for business owners rather than workers—ultimately exacerbating economic inequality.

Some argue that AI will offset job losses by creating new opportunities, but the reality is more complex. AI-related jobs do not benefit everyone equally, and some contribute little to societal well-being (e.g., deepfakes, manipulative online advertising, and AI-powered cyberattacks). According to Acemoglu’s estimates, these new AI-driven tasks could increase U.S. GDP by 2%, but he remains uncertain whether this will have a positive impact on society.

AI is undoubtedly transforming the world, but research suggests that its economic impact will likely be more gradual than many predict. It has the potential to enhance certain processes, create new opportunities, and even assist workers. But an economic miracle? For now, that seems to be nothing more than a myth.