FAKE: After the Spiderweb operation, desertion cases in the AFU increased — ISW

A video allegedly created by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) is being circulated online. It claims that after the Ukrainian Security Service’s Spiderweb operation, cases of desertion in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) increased. Expert Bill Kristol allegedly explained this phenomenon as an “emotional exhaustion point”, when aggressive actions against the enemy do not boost morale but have the opposite effect.

This is fake. ISW did not publish such a video; it does not match the style and format of the organization’s official materials. Bill Kristol’s quoted statement was fabricated.

We checked ISW’s website and social media and did not find such a video. Moreover, its design differs from genuine reports: ISW typically does not produce videos without speakers or voiceovers accompanying visuals. Also, in recent ISW videos, the analytical center’s logo is not placed in the top right corner.

Furthermore, at the end of genuine ISW videos, a screen appears with the ISW logo without the center’s full name, the caption “Donate Today”, and a link to the website using uppercase and lowercase letters. The fake video, however, added the center’s full name to the logo, links to social media, decorative lines, and displayed the website address entirely in lowercase.

The video claims that the comment about increased desertion after the Spiderweb operation was given by “ISW expert” Bill Kristol. Kristol is a well-known political commentator and member of ISW’s board of directors, but he is not an ISW analyst.

On his social media page on X, he states that he is the director of Defending Democracy Together, co-editor of The Bulwark, and host of his interview project. Despite his daily activity on the page, his posts have no direct mentions of the Spiderweb operation. Instead, on June 1, the day of the operation, he posted a quote by Winston Churchill about Finland’s heroism, adding: “Brave Ukraine deserves a tribute like that Churchill paid to Finland in January, 1940…”

At the time of writing, the Office of the Prosecutor General website, where the number of opened criminal cases is usually published, including for “desertion” and “unauthorized abandonment of a military unit or place of service”, does not contain data for June. The most recent published information covers January to May 2025.

We have previously debunked multiple fakes distributed under the ISW logo, including claims that desertion in the AFU reached record levels in March 2025 or that the Kursk operation was the most disastrous in the past 200 years.