In our opinion, the number of vacancies and resumes on job search portals can be a leading indicator for the labor market.
As part of our research, we studied the weekly data on new vacancies and resumes posted on Work.ua in the period before the quarantine and one month into it. From April 1, we also started gathering more detailed daily data. Let us be reminded that the quarantine began on March 12 (week 11), and on March 18, public transport restrictions were introduced. On April 22, the quarantine was extended until May 11.
Figure 1. Number of vacancies and resumes on work.ua.
Source: WorkUA
Over the course of the quarantine, there was a gradual decline both in the number of vacancies and resumes (Fig. 1). With the number of vacancies decreasing faster, the average number of resumes per vacancy increased from 2 to 3. At the same time, according to the State Employment Service, in March, the number of the officially unemployed in Ukraine increased by 22% compared to the same period in 2019. A decline in the number of new resumes against the backdrop of rising unemployment may mean that there were some who had lost their jobs but decided against seeking new employment (moving to the category of the economically inactive). Part of the employed may have decided against seeking a better alternative in conditions of uncertainty. It may well be that due to transport restrictions, people are not able to get to a job interview or to work (especially those working in large cities but residing outside them).
The number of new vacancies decreased the most in the week of March 18-24, after the introduction of transport restrictions. The decline in the number of vacancies was observed in all cities, in all sectors, and during all weeks of the quarantine. The greatest decline occurred in the hotel and restaurant business, and tourism. There was also a significant decline in the “beauty, fitness, and sports” category.
The prevailing downward trend may be a sign that business outlook has deteriorated not only with regard to businesses forced to close due to quarantine, but for all sectors of the economy.
The number of new resumes also dropped the most in the week of March 18-24, then remained nearly stable until it began to go down again in the week of April 15-21. The number of resumes dropped in all regions and sectors, but most of all, in “beauty, fitness, and sports”. The latter category showed some growth (7%) in the week of April 15-21, which may signal the end of savings and a need to start earning an income.
The number of resumes per vacancy increased during quarantine in all regions and business sectors. It grew the most in the week of March 25-31. Growth with regard to the hotel and restaurant business and tourism was particularly rapid. This may indicate layoffs just days before in these sectors, i.e. a reduction in demand coupled with an increase in labor supply.
Fig. 2 shows that a reduction in vacancies between the week of March 4-10 (the last week before quarantine) and April 15-21 was noticeable in all areas, but most of all, in the hotel and restaurant business, and tourism, with agriculture and security suffering the least.
Figure 2. Change in the number of resumes and vacancies between the week of March 4-10 and April 15-21,%
Source: work.ua, our own calculations. Note: on the horizontal axis – change in the number of resumes, on the vertical axis – change in the number of vacancies. The Figure’s data table is in the appendix.
According to Table 1, nearly all industries demonstrated an increase in the number of resumes per vacancy, mostly in the hotel and restaurant business, and tourism.
Table 1. Change in the number of resumes per vacancy between the weeks by area of employment
| sphere of activity | number of resumes per vacancy | ||
| 04-10/03 | 15-21/04 | Change, % | |
| Hotel and restaurant business, tourism | 1,4 | 4,1 | 189% |
| Mass media, publishing, printing | 4,1 | 10,2 | 151% |
| Jurisprudence | 3,3 | 7,2 | 118% |
| Service sector | 1,4 | 2,9 | 113% |
| Education, science | 3,4 | 7,0 | 107% |
| Design, arts | 3,3 | 6,7 | 106% |
| Marketing, advertising, PR | 1,6 | 3,3 | 103% |
| Beauty, fitness, sports | 1,8 | 3,4 | 87% |
| Telecommunications and communications | 1,2 | 2,2 | 82% |
| IT, computers, internet | 1,4 | 2,6 | 80% |
| Sales, procurement | 1,2 | 2,2 | 79% |
| HR | 2,8 | 4,9 | 76% |
| Accounting, audit | 1,7 | 2,9 | 74% |
| Transport, auto business | 2,2 | 3,9 | 73% |
| All spheres | 1,8 | 3,1 | 72% |
| Secretariat, administrative | 3,0 | 5,1 | 68% |
| Real estate | 0,9 | 1,4 | 68% |
| Logistics, warehouse, FEA | 1,6 | 2,7 | 64% |
| Construction, architecture | 2,0 | 3,2 | 60% |
| Culture, music, show business | 5,2 | 8,3 | 60% |
| Administration, middle management | 3,6 | 5,7 | 58% |
| Top management | 7,1 | 11,0 | 56% |
| Workers, production | 1,5 | 2,3 | 56% |
| Finance, bank | 1,2 | 1,7 | 44% |
| Retail | 1,4 | 1,8 | 30% |
| Security | 3,2 | 4,1 | 29% |
| Medicine, pharmacy | 1,6 | 1,9 | 22% |
| Agriculture, agribusiness | 1,4 | 1,7 | 17% |
| Insurance | 0,8 | 0,9 | 16% |
Source: work.ua, our own calculations
Next, we will separately analyze in more detail the daily data for the three weeks of April.
Vacancies
Among the leaders in the number of vacancies for the three weeks in April are the State Savings Bank of Ukraine (Oschadbank), grocery retail chains (Silpo, Fora, Retail Group, Novus), and logistics companies (Ukrposhta and Nova Poshta). These businesses were not closed due to quarantine but could lose staff due to the transport restrictions, so they were recruiting new staff. At the same time, against the backdrop of a general decline in labor demand, the number of vacancies in Ukrposhta and Nova Poshta remained almost the same.
39% of vacancies require work experience of one year or more, 26% of two years, and 6% of five years. The number of vacancies without experience or with experience less than a year dropped faster than vacancies with work experience of two or five years. In times of crisis, companies tend to seek out more experienced employees.
The number of vacancies with the possibility of working remotely amounted to 6%, and in absolute terms, it almost stayed the same against the backdrop of a general decline in the number of vacancies.
Resumes
59% of resumes came from applicants with higher education, with only 38% of vacancies requiring it. If the overall average ratio of resumes to vacancies is 2.4, it is 3.8 in the case of resumes to vacancies with higher education. It would probably be advisable that job seekers with higher education should also pay attention to vacancies that do not require it.
29% of job seekers consider the possibility of teleworking (6% of vacancies) and, in absolute terms, their number hardly changed in the three weeks.
Forecast
On April 22, quarantine was extended until May 11, i.e. another three weeks. In these circumstances, we can expect a further reduction in new vacancies in all business sectors.
It seems that so far businesses and employees consider closing or downsizing businesses as temporary. But it is clear that both business entities and individual people have fixed costs (i.e. those incurred in any case), as well as limited savings.
Depending on how much of the savings has been used on food by those who lost their jobs and the number of newly unemployed, the trend in the number of resumes may be expected to swing from falling to rising.
With the extension of quarantine, employees will be dismissed instead of being placed on temporary leave, and entrepreneurs will be closing their businesses. Past this point, lifting quarantines will no longer lead to a full recovery of economic activity.
After lifting the quarantine, it will also become clear that it is not the only source of economic problems. The crisis in the energy sector has already begun. Consequences of falling external demand will follow. There are signs of problems in agriculture due to bad weather conditions.
To minimize losses to the economy, quarantine restrictions need to be eased gradually, and, above all, public transport should be available again (with passengers wearing masks and gloves, and keeping safe distance). Citizens should be able to get to work, as well as to their country house or garden to plant something there. Otherwise, the level of poverty and the number of people needing support from the state will increase significantly.
Cooperation with the IMF should be resumed as soon as possible to finance anti-crisis measures. It will also open access to other donors’ funds. Resources are needed not only for the period of quarantine (aid to the unemployed), but also to revive economic activity after it. Because even if allowed to work now, many companies will not have enough working capital to restart.
We will continue to follow the market closely, with plans to publish the next issue in a few weeks.
We would like to thank Olha Poharska for her help in writing this article.
Annex
Table 1. Change in the number of resumes and vacancies between the week of March 4-10 and April 15-21,%
| Sphere of activity | Change in the number of vacancies | Change in the number of resumes |
| IT, computers, internet | -48% | -6% |
| Administration, middle management | -52% | -24% |
| Accounting, audit | -57% | -24% |
| Hotel and restaurant business, tourism | -83% | -52% |
| Design, arts | -56% | -9% |
| Beauty, fitness, sports | -73% | -50% |
| Culture, music, show business | -48% | -17% |
| Logistics, warehouse, FEA | -50% | -18% |
| Marketing, advertisement, PR | -57% | -12% |
| Medicine, pharmacy | -47% | -35% |
| Real estate | -61% | -34% |
| Education, science | -60% | -18% |
| Security | -34% | -15% |
| Workers, production | -49% | -20% |
| Secretarial, administrative | -61% | -34% |
| Mass media, publishing, printing | -60% | 0% |
| Insurance | -54% | -46% |
| Construction, architecture | -49% | -18% |
| Service sector | -74% | -44% |
| Top management | -43% | -11% |
| Sales, procurement | -56% | -22% |
| Retail | -62% | -50% |
| Transport, auto business | -49% | -12% |
| HR | -57% | -24% |
| Finance, bank | -50% | -28% |
| Jurisprudence | -66% | -26% |
| Agriculture and agribusiness | -30% | -18% |
| Other spheres of activity | 0% | -45% |
| Telecommunications and communication | -54% | -17% |
Attention
The authors do not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have no relevant affiliations
