USA, Masons, and the Vatican: “Experts” Shvets, Shabanov, Solovey on the War and Putin’s Death

In the Ukrainian information space, the number of pseudo-experts is growing steadily, supported by some Ukrainian media. In search of sensational statements and incredible insights, outlets turn to foreign speakers who are happy to share “unique” knowledge and forecasts. It doesn’t matter that often their theses are manipulative or outright fake. The confident voice and emotionality of the speakers drown out this “minor flaw”.

At the same time, the audience eagerly consumes such content: foreign speakers may seem more reliable and truthful than domestic experts. Thus, pseudo-experts freely feel at home on Ukrainian channels and continue to influence Ukrainians, spreading any, even the most absurd, theses to the audience of a country at war.

So, using the example of three pseudo-experts — Yurii Shvets, Fikret Shabanov, and Valery Solovey — we will examine what narratives they promote and why they are dangerous.

“Who am I?”: Biographies of the “experts”

Yurii Shvets

Shvets calls himself a former intelligence officer of the KGB of the USSR, a cosmopolitan, an analyst, and an expert in global politics, giving “unique” forecasts that have no analogues in the world. He examines world events, talks about corruption and agents in the “higher echelons of power in Ukraine”, and “professionally” explains why other “experts” Valery Solovey and Andrii Illarionov are “drain tanks” of Russian intelligence services.

According to Shvets, after school, he went to the army, and served in special forces of the Main Intelligence Directorate near Odesa. Shvets allegedly personally listened to the radiotelephone of the US Air Force command in Europe. As The Washington Post wrote back in 1993, Shvets arrived in the US in 1985 as a young KGB officer. Shvets’s main mission was to recruit Americans in the White House, Pentagon, and CIA, as well as to promote the ideas of world socialism. However, at that time, Soviet intelligence in the US was bureaucratic and incompetent, allowing the US government to deport many KGB agents from the country in 1986. So, in 1990, Shvets resigned from his position, and a little later wrote the book “Washington Station: My Life as a KGB Spy in America”.

In 2015, Shvets confirmed in an interview with Gordon that in 1985, he was sent to Washington as a correspondent under the cover of the TASS news agency: “Journalism was a cover; I came with the task of ‘not missing the US’s preparation for a sudden missile-nuclear strike on the USSR’. All my colleagues in political intelligence received such a task.“

Some publications even called Shvets a classmate of Putin during their studies at the KGB institute. However, he refuted these rumors and stated that he doesn’t even have a Russian passport. On his LinkedIn, Shvets indicates that since 1998 he has been working as an independent international investigator in Washington. In 2021, The Guardian reported that Shvets works as a corporate security investigator in the US. However, we couldn’t independently verify some facts from Shvets’s biography, as most of them are presented only by him.

Since June 2021, Shvets has been actively managing his social media, including a YouTube channel. Over about three years, his channel has more than 860 videos and 1.4 million subscribers. It’s not surprising, as the “expert” actively uses clickbait headlines — “The Critical Moment Has Come“, “Who is Behind the Conspiracy Against Zaluzhnyi“, “‘Bomb’! Europe Has Issued an Ultimatum to America on Ukraine“, etc.

Fikret Shabanov

In Ukrainian media, Fikret Shabanov is presented as the president of the Canadian analytical center Consultations on International Policy and Economy. However, there is little information online about the center’s activities or the “expert” himself. So, what is known about the Canadian analyst who has been regularly appearing on Ukrainian channels at least since August 2022?

He reported that he was born in 1970 in Armenia, attended school in Uzbekistan, and studied “History and Law” at a university in Baku. Currently, he is a citizen of Azerbaijan and lives in Vancouver, Canada. He wrote a candidate’s dissertation on “The Formation and Determination of Priorities of Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy (1990-1995)”, developed the concept of Azerbaijan’s national security (he did not specify in what position), was the chief editor of the Azerbaijani magazine “National Security“, and has been in business since 1992. He stated that he specializes in geopolitics and geoeconomics.

Shabanov explained the lack of research from the Consultations on International Policy and Economy analytical center online as follows: “The center is a closed commercial structure that conducts systematic analytics on contract for the employer“. According to him, they involve “world-renowned” experts in their work, and the materials are the customer’s private property.

In 2020, Shabanov appeared on Azerbaijani channels, where he was presented as a Canadian political scientist. He also appeared on Kyrgyz media and Georgian blogger Nino Khichidze’s shows. However, neither Azerbaijani nor Kyrgyz media provide information about the political scientist’s biography.

Shabanov’s Instagram page is private, and he is not active on Facebook, so he spreads his messages through his YouTube and Telegram channels. In these social networks, Shabanov has over 200,000 subscribers combined. The “expert” receives much more attention on Ukrainian channels. For example, in a month, videos with Shabanov gather hundreds of thousands, sometimes even millions of views.

Valery Solovey

He is called a political scientist, expert, professor, but in reality, Valery Solovey is an ordinary pseudo-expert who spreads unverified information, fakes, and conspiracy theories. Although he does have a doctorate, graduating from Moscow State University in 1983 and working as a Doctor of Historical Sciences at the Russian Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) until 2019.

Before the full-scale invasion, Solovey was mainly popular in Russia. After leaving MGIMO, he switched to spreading conspiracy theories about Putin. In 2019, The Sun published his statements about Putin’s possible Parkinson’s disease. The statement was picked up by several English–language media, which made Solovey popular abroad.

In 2022, the Russian Ministry of Justice recognized Solovey as a “foreign agent” engaged in political activities and receiving funding from Ukraine. That year, according to Russian media, Solovey was a suspect in a criminal case for extremism, inciting hatred or enmity. Russian media reported that Solovey was accused of supporting the “Ukrainian” Telegram channel “General SVR”, particularly through joint broadcasts with the so-called anonymous former general of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR).

Thanks to this Telegram channel, Solovey became popular in Ukraine. Russians claim that the author of “General SVR” is former Ukrainian lawyer Viktor Yermolaiev. However, there is no confirmation of such claims. Whether Solovey actually runs the Telegram channel is unknown. However, the rhetoric of the anonymous channel and the professor, specifically about “Putin’s death”, is very similar.

Pseudo-expert Solovey is also popularized by Ukrainians themselves, as he systematically appears in videos on the Ukrainian YouTube channel “Fabryka Novyn (News Factory)”. He has been interviewed by journalists from Dmytro Gordon’s YouTube channel, including Gordon himself and Nataliia Moseichuk. His broadcasts have also been repeatedly popularized on the YouTube channel of the Ukrainian news agency “UNIAN” and in the YouTube of “TSN“. Valery Solovey also has his own YouTube channel.

Predictions by “experts”

Shvets 

Yurii Shvets, speculating on his past in the KGB, systematically disseminates supposedly insider information and presents himself as a “great prognosticator”. In reality, he is just an ordinary pseudo-expert whose predictions do not come true. One notable example is his “unique” predictions about the start of the full-scale invasion.

For instance, on January 17, 2022, Shvets assessed the possibility of an invasion as “less than 50%” because, according to him, Russia is supposedly a “vassal” of China, and China “doesn’t need it at all”. On February 19, 2022, Shvets repeated this thesis but added that now Russia itself does not need the invasion. However, his predictions did not come true.

Moreover, Shvets’ predictions about the end of the war also failed. In one of his videos on April 29, 2022, he predicted that active hostilities on the battlefield would “end very soon”. As we see, Shvets’ forecast about the end of the war also failed.

In addition, Shvets often tailors his predictions to current events. For example, in July 2023, during the Defense Forces’ counteroffensive, he claimed that this would inevitably lead to Russia’s defeat. By October, he acknowledged that the counteroffensive was not successful. According to Shvets, Volodymyr Zelenskyi supposedly officially stated that the Defense Forces must liberate Ukrainian territory by October 24, 2024. However, there is no such statement from the president in open sources.

The “expert” also discussed the failures of the Russian armed forces’ leadership. In particular, he predicted that Russia would feel the real impact of sanctions and have its economy collapse by the end of 2023.

Shabanov

Fikret Shabanov also occasionally makes predictions about future political decisions without providing any basis for them. His most prominent prediction was his statement in April 2023 that on July 17, 2023, Russia might use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or blow up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. He did not specify the source of this information or why the incident was supposed to happen on July 17. However, CNN reported, citing high-ranking officials from the Biden administration, that the likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons was highest at the end of 2022. In September 2022, Main Directorate of Intelligence representative Vadym Skibitsky said that the threat of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine was “very high”.

Currently, Shabanov continues to “predict“. In March 2024, he claimed that the U.S. would not provide aid. However, on April 20, the House of Representatives in Congress supported a bill to provide Ukraine with over $60 billion. On April 24, the bill was approved by the Senate and later signed by President Biden.

Solovey

Solovey likes to make predictions, but like Shvets’ predictions, his information often does not come true and sometimes even plays into the hands of the Kremlin. For example, in February 2024, he stated that after the presidential elections in Russia, Putin would resign.

Solovey is consistently mistaken in predicting the announcement of Putin’s death. At the end of October 2023, he said that in 2-3 months or even sooner, the announcement of the Russian dictator’s death would be made.

Another topic of Solovey’s predictions is the course of events on the front. In April 2024, Solovey indicated that battles for Crimea could start as early as the summer-fall of 2023. That same year, he predicted that the war would end by the end of 2023. These predictions are positive for Ukraine, but they also pose a hidden danger. They lull the society’s vigilance, calm it down and instill the belief that everything is already decided and Ukraine will win. As a result, Ukrainians begin to support the military less, and pay less attention to news and problems on the front.

Discrediting Ukraine

Shvets

Shortly before Russia’s invasion in 2022, Yurii Shvets discredited the Ukrainian government. He claimed that Ukraine was “stuffed” with Russian agents and that Ukrainians allegedly had no trust in the higher authorities. According to him, only the politician Ihor Smeshko could remove these “agents”. Smeshko actively participated in political talk shows but has given fewer comments since the invasion. Dmytro Gordon, a supporter of Smeshko who led the election campaign for his party “Syla ta Chest (Strength and Honor)” in 2019, also likes to invite Shvets for interviews.

In Shvets’ opinion, the President’s Office, not the Kremlin, makes the U.S. an “enemy” to divert attention from “failures on the front”. He cites anonymous Pentagon sources who allegedly told the Financial Times that the U.S. urged Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries. Presidential Office advisor Mykhailo Podolyak denied this information following the Financial Times publication. Based on this, Shvets concludes that the President’s Office “lied” and made the U.S. an “enemy” to distract from the “failures on the front”. 

Shvets also discredits the new commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi. He hints at his “unprofessionalism” and calls him a “Kremlin cadet” who went through KGB training. However, Shvets fails to mention that he himself worked for the KGB and covertly gathered information on Americans in the U.S. He questions how someone who went through Russian training could be appointed to such a high position. In reality, Shvets actively supports the Kremlin’s disinformation wave and promotes the narrative of Syrskyi as a “Russian agent”. He also overlooks that Syrskyi, before becoming commander-in-chief, was part of Zaluzhnyi’s team and the commander of the Ground Forces. We previously debunked similar accusations about Oleksandr Syrskyi in one of our materials.

As a classic pseudo-expert, Shvets eagerly quotes other pseudo-experts. For example, Salem Alketbi from the UAE, who promotes narratives beneficial to Russia and considers Ukraine’s defeat “inevitable” and “visible on the horizon”.

Shabanov

In his broadcasts, Shabanov discredits Ukraine by spreading unfounded assumptions or rumors, often combining these statements with conspiracy theories. For instance, in March 2024, the pseudo-expert claimed that the President of Ukraine, the Prime Minister, the Speaker of the Verkhovna Rada, and the head of the President’s Office secretly visited the Pope and signed agreements on Ukraine’s capitulation. According to his “inside information”, the Ukrainian authorities reacted negatively to the Pope’s call for Ukraine to raise the “white flag” because he revealed these secret agreements.

Shabanov explicitly states that the information about this “secret visit” and negotiations is not insider information but his version, which “is based on logic”. However, according to open sources, the last time the President of Ukraine visited the Vatican was on May 13, 2023. The claims about “secret agreements behind the public’s back” are not supported by arguments and divide Ukrainians. Such a scenario — a surrender without a fight — is highly beneficial to Russia.

The pseudo-political scientist also promotes another narrative favorable to Russia — that Zelenskyi is not a legitimate president since May 2024, and he supposedly became the acting president. In September 2023, Shabanov claimed that the U.S. would demand Ukraine hold elections. He also suggested that many Ukrainians had left, and the elections might be just a simulation, but the West would “push them through”.

However, according to Article 108 of the Constitution of Ukraine, the president’s powers do not cease after the term ends; he remains in office until the inauguration of the next head of state. A new president can only be elected after the martial law ends. As of May 2024, EU and U.S. leaders have not demanded that Volodymyr Zelenskyi hold elections or questioned the legality of his position.

At the same time, Shabanov claims that it does not matter to society who the President of Ukraine is: “Regarding internal Ukrainian politics, [elections] are an attempt by one mafia to replace the president and bring another mafia to power. Unfortunately, the word ‘democracy’ only has an external facade in your country. You have candidates who are ‘bad’ and ‘worse.’“

Solovey

Solovey rarely mentions the Ukrainian government. However, in February 2024, on the Ukrainian YouTube channel “Fabryka Novyn (News Factory)”, he explained the reasons for the full-scale invasion. According to him, in the fall of 2019, Putin proposed to Zelenskyi to become the prime minister of a union state that would include Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine. Allegedly, Zelenskyi initially agreed but then changed his mind. Putin, feeling betrayed by Zelenskyi supposedly decided to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Like previous statements, this one is also based solely on Solovey’s words. This claim not only discredits the Ukrainian government but also justifies Russia’s actions, suggesting that the situation was not straightforward and that Putin was a victim, making his reaction justified. The narrative that Russia was forced to start the war is a recurring theme in Russian propaganda.

Conspiracy Theories 

Shvets

Shvets continues to discredit the state, claiming that his “personal channels in the Pentagon” told him that the authorities “disliked” Valerii Zaluzhnyi so much that they did not provide him with state security, even when he was the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In contrast, Oleksandr Syrskyi allegedly had strong security in his previous position. These claims sound like conspiracy theories, as there is no reason to believe that Valerii Zaluzhny lacked security.

This is not the only conspiracy theory Shvets has spread. He previously suggested that Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit to Saudi Arabia in late February 2024 was strange because it was not announced in advance. The visit was supposedly very brief and reminiscent of an alleged secret meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyi and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Oman in 2020. In reality, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud and Volodymyr Zelenskyi discussed bilateral cooperation between Ukraine and Saudi Arabia in economic and technological spheres, as well as points of the Ukrainian Peace Formula. Moreover, official visits are not always announced publicly in advance. For example, we can recall the unannounced visit of U.S. President Joe Biden and Polish President Andrzej Duda to Ukraine. Zelenskyi also made unannounced visits to Lithuania, Canada, Belgium, etc.

Additionally, Shvets allegedly knows that a batch of ammunition that Czechia wanted to send to Ukraine had already been delivered as of March 20, 2024. He also received “very disturbing” news that a “significant” part of this ammunition was found submerged in water or buried in the ground. The so-called expert was very concerned that the ammunition was being given to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine instead of the Armed Forces, suggesting that all clues should be sought there. However, former Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov explained in 2022 that the General Staff of the Armed Forces initially forms the request for weapons, and then the Ministry of Defense, defense attachés, and diplomats work on it. The received equipment and weapons are centrally transferred by the Ministry of Defense to the Armed Forces’ warehouses, which then distribute them. Therefore, the initial transfer of weapons to the Ministry of Defense is not “unique” or “strange”, as Shvets tries to present it.

On March 20, 2024, Shvets spread rumors that several hundred missiles with a range of over 400 km, better than American ATACMS, had arrived in Ukraine “several months ago”. These missiles, according to Shvets, were not “used” on the battlefield because Presidential Office head Andrii Yermak allegedly did not give Oleksandr Syrskyi the order to use them. Shvets suggests that this is a “cunning plan” personally developed by Deputy Chair of the Parliamentary Committee on National Security, Defense, and Intelligence Mariana Bezuhla.

Shabanov

Despite Shabanov’s claim that he specializes in geopolitics and geoeconomics, the “expert” comments on a much broader range of topics and fields. For example, he calls the COVID-19 pandemic an “operation” involving the US and France. Shabanov also talks about the power of the masons, who supposedly organize wars. He has an entire theory about who “really” controls the world. Shabanov promotes the idea that the Vatican is the center of world power, which also controls Ukraine.

The pseudo-expert has his own vision of the causes of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He consistently claims that France started the war in Ukraine to resolve the so-called “German question”. According to him, France, together with the Russian elites, wants to draw Germany into the war to weaken it. A strong Germany, according to the political scientist, would become the moderator of Eastern Europe and an ally of Russia, leading to the “end of France and a decrease in London’s influence”. “In any case, the war in Ukraine will only end when Germany enters the war on one side and Russia on the other,” Shabanov asserts. Thus, Western countries are only using Ukraine to achieve their geopolitical goals, allegedly due to the corruption of the Ukrainian government.

Solovey

The central theme of all Solovey’s speeches and statements is the claim that Putin died on October 26, 2023, at a residence in Altai due to cancer diagnosed in 2020. According to him, a double, a carpenter from Belarus named Yevgeny Vasilyevich, now performs Putin’s duties. Solovey has added new details to this claim in various broadcasts. For instance, he reported that in December 2023, Putin’s body was moved from a household to an industrial refrigerator. Instead, Russia is allegedly ruled by a group of 20 people led by Nikolai Patrushev. Patrushev supposedly aims to make his son the prime minister, after which the double would hand over power to Patrushev Jr.

Solovey also claims that Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu frequently consult shamans. On the night of Putin’s death, Shoigu allegedly invited shamans to perform a ritual to endow him with “supreme power”. 

In April 2024, Solovey stated that he believes it is “obvious” that Putin’s death is being concealed. He argues that the Russian government is doing this to manage the transition of power, as announcing Putin’s death now would lead the country into chaos. He also suggests that the West is aware of Putin’s death and has accepted it to maintain stability in Russia. However, Solovey provides no sources to confirm his claims.

Fakes

Shvets

Shortly before the full-scale invasion, Shvets actively promoted the idea that Russia had not once declared NATO expansion a threat since 1998, which is false. At the 2007 Munich Security Conference, Putin called NATO expansion a “provocative factor”. In 2008, then-President Dmitry Medvedev also stated that NATO expansion was a threat to Russia, words were also repeated by Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Putin himself spoke of the “threat” posed by NATO expansion just before the full-scale invasion.

Shvets continues to spread blatant falsehoods during the ongoing war. In April 2022, he claimed that CNN reported on the theft of military and humanitarian aid provided by the West to Ukraine. In reality, the CNN article did not accuse Ukraine. It discussed issues like poorly organized logistics and the inability of the US to fully track the use of the aid. It also mentioned the potential for weapons to end up on the black market if the war dragged on, similar to what happened with American weapons in Afghanistan after the Taliban took over.

While isolated cases of aid theft have been recorded, there is no evidence to suggest that such theft is widespread. In November 2023, US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink stated that no equipment, humanitarian aid, or financial assistance had been misused. In January 2024, the US Department of Defense’s Inspector General published a report confirming that there was no evidence of US-supplied weapons ending up in third countries. EU officials also reported no instances of stolen aid.

Shabanov

Although Shabanov acknowledges that Russia is the aggressor, he simultaneously claims that a proxy war is taking place in Ukraine, with the Ukrainian government being a puppet and an “anti-Russia” project in the hands of Western states, particularly France and the US. “They (the US) are using you as a private military company for their interests, under the guise of motivating you to fight for your homeland,” says the “expert”.

He emphasizes in every possible way that Ukraine is not a subject and no one takes its position into account. He claims that Pope Francis’s call to end the war was directed not at Ukraine but at “those forces that finance and moderate” the Ukraine-Russia war. This narrative, a central theme of Kremlin propaganda, aims to justify Russia’s invasion. Shabanov suggests that while Moscow started the war, the West is also to blame. This narrative implies that the Ukrainian government is powerless and that Ukraine’s victory or defeat depends entirely on third countries, demoralizing Ukrainian society by suggesting that defending the country is futile if “everything will be decided for us”.

Shabanov reinforces this narrative with false claims that partners like Poland and France actually want to divide Ukraine. He provides no documents or other arguments to support these statements, causing distrust of international partners when mentioned on Ukrainian platforms.

Additionally, Shabanov consistently asserts that Russia cannot lose the war because, if the situation develops unfavorably for the Russian leadership, they will use nuclear weapons.

Solovey 

Before the full-scale invasion, in 2020, Solovey claimed that although Crimea was illegally separated from Ukraine, from the perspective of Russian history, culture, and mass consciousness, the annexation of the peninsula was “just”. He repeated this in an interview with Dmytro Gordon, which was viewed by over 6 million users. He also said that returning Crimea would be impossible. That same year, he announced his intention to visit the temporarily occupied Sevastopol.

Who else?

Apart from the “experts” mentioned above, there are many foreign speakers in the Ukrainian information space who promote destructive, misleading, and outright harmful ideas for Ukraine. One such figure is the Russian political analyst Stanislav Belkovsky, who often appears on Ukrainian media channels. He has his own YouTube channel with over 270,000 subscribers, and videos featuring him on Ukrainian YouTube channels garner hundreds of views.

Belkovsky uses these platforms to promote narratives commonly spread in Russia, such as the idea that Ukraine lacks subjectivity and that Russia is making deals with the U.S. behind Ukraine’s back. For example, he agreed with another Russian blogger, Mark Feygin, who claimed that Putin didn’t launch an offensive on Kharkiv only because negotiations with the Biden administration were ongoing and that the U.S. was already considering a peace plan.

Belkovsky also speculated that the “leaked” conversation in which Trump mentioned plans to force Kyiv to relinquish occupied Ukrainian territories if he wins the election is actually Biden’s plan. Additionally, he claimed that Putin was interested in securing a ceasefire by February 24, 2024. However, as of May 2024, active fighting continued, with the Russian army conducting numerous assaults on Ukrainian positions.

Another “expert”, former Polish Labor Minister Piotr Kulpa, frequently appears on both large Ukrainian YouTube channels with thousands of subscribers and on emerging channels. There, he spreads a popular propaganda narrative that in May 2024, Zelenskyi will become illegitimate and will be considered only an acting president. We have already explained why this claim is entirely false.

The speakers mentioned in this article are not the only “experts” whose statements target Ukrainians. We have collected some of the most striking examples, but there are dozens of similar “specialists” online who promote narratives in line with Russian propaganda.

Examination of experts

The cases of these “experts” demonstrate that speakers who present themselves as neutral or pro-Ukrainian are not always what they seem. Whether intentionally or not, Shvets, Solovey, and Shabanov spread Russian narratives, citing anonymous sources or providing no evidence at all. Amid statements of support and a desire to help Ukraine, these “specialists” promote harmful narratives to a large Ukrainian audience. Such messages divide and demoralize society, leading to panic and distrust towards both the government and Western partners.

Therefore, hundreds or even millions of views on a speaker’s videos do not indicate their integrity or expertise. Loud statements and sensational predictions are also unlikely to signify that you are dealing with a true expert. To determine how qualified a speaker is, it’s worth:

• reading their biography, learning about their education and experience to understand whether they have knowledge of the issues they comment on;
• researching whom they have collaborated with and which media outlets have featured their comments;
• checking the organization where the speaker works;
• looking for whether the speaker has spread fakes, especially about Ukraine;
• analyzing the speaker’s social media pages: what they wrote before, how their rhetoric has changed;
• reviewing the range of topics they comment on; a speaker cannot be an expert in everything;
• ensuring that the speaker has acknowledged past mistakes; making mistakes is normal, but pretending to be a “prophet” who is always right is not.

Claims without any supporting arguments, statements based solely on anonymous sources, and the promotion of conspiracy theories are all signs of pseudo-experts. They may give hope, say that the war won’t happen, and once it begins, promise that it will soon end. But this is merely creating a parallel reality, different from the real situation. Living in a world of illusions during war can be very costly.